Battleground Poll: Obama, Romney in dead heat

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds a dead heat in the presidential race six months before the election.
Mitt Romney edged out President Barack Obama 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, a number well within the margin of error, as Republicans rapidly consolidate behind the likely GOP nominee.



The former Massachusetts governor has opened up a 10-point lead, 48 percent to 38 percent, among independents in a poll conducted Sunday, April 29 through Thursday, May 3 and a 6-point lead among those who describe themselves as “extremely likely” to vote in November. Obama led Romney by 9 points overall in POLITICO’s February’s poll.
But there are suggestions that these numbers are extremely fluid: Obama holds double-digit leads over the presumptive Republican nominee on issues such as who will better handle foreign policy and who will stand up for the middle class and on “sharing your values.” But enduring concern about the economy — by far the most important issue to voters — keeps the president in a tenuous position despite employment numbers that show slight but steady improvement.
(See full poll results here.)
While approval of Congress remains in the basement at 13 percent, the poll shows that voters aren’t inclined to throw all the bums out in another major push for change.
The GOP has taken a narrow 45 percent to 43 percent lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to the poll, and 65 percent believe Republicans will continue to control the House majority after the election. Forty-one percent believe Democrats will keep the Senate majority.
Despite the buzz about who will be Romney’s vice presidential pick, nearly two-thirds of respondents said the vice presidential nominee will not affect their vote. Of the 35 percent who said it will have an impact, just 7 percent described the veep choice as extremely important to their decision.
The president’s job approval rating stands at 48 percent, down 5 points from February and a number now equal to the percentage of voters who disapprove of Obama’s performance.
The results signal that as the general election phase of the campaign gets under way, who will win the presidency is a jump ball.
A full 91 percent of Republicans support Romney, slightly exceeding the percentage of Democrats who support Obama.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who helped conduct the bipartisan poll, called it “a predictable tightening of the race.”
“You have both sides very consolidated,” she said. “There are no signs of fissures on either side, but you have the Democrats less enthusiastic than the Republicans.”
Americans are split evenly about Obama’s economic policies: Forty percent said he’s made the economy better; 39 percent said he’s made it worse; and 19 percent said he’s had no impact on it.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group said the 19 percent who don’t think Obama has affected the economy — which split 46 percent for Romney and 44 percent for Obama — will decide the election.


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